Trump wants to quickly end Gaza war — can he?

 

WASHINGTON —  

President-select Donald Trump shows keenness to conclude conflict in Gaza. He aims for a swift resolution. At the same time the outgoing Biden administration keeps pushing for a last-ditch diplomatic effort. This effort is for a ceasefire deal. 

Trump stated early this week. He said if hostages held by Hamas aren't returned home by On Jan. 20, 2025, "hell will break loose."

His caution echoes the threat he made in a social media post earlier in the month.He then stated, Those in charge will face ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.Those who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity are to blame. They will be hit harder than anyone ever has. It will be the hardest hit in the long, storied History of America." 

What Trump's plans for Gaza aren't clear. When pressed to clarify the threat he says, "It means it might not be nice."

Trump could set up resources for exerting military pressure on Hamas sources a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib. Unlikely it'll be "significantly crueler than what Israelis endured over last 14 months."

"Another element might exist. I hope it's not the tactic. It would aim to possibly impede humanitarian aid flow" conveyed Alkhatib to VOA.

There is possibility that Trump directs threats to Hamas members outside Gaza. Trump could also put pressure on countries that back them. This is according to Alkhatib. Hamas is a terror group specifically targeted by U.S.

Hamas' section outside may be open to Washington's pressure. The patron of Hamas, Tehran has seen a decline. This is due to the loss of Hezbollah in Lebanon.Additionally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was removed from power. Hezbollah like Hamas, is an Iranian proxy. Assad's regime was Tehran's main ally.

Trump's warnings show a message. It is clear to people in Middle East that U.S. wants this finished. This was stated by David Makovsky. He directs Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy Project. The project focuses on Middle East Peace Process.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in a difficult position.. He must please ultra-right-wing portion of his coalition. They push for building and even annexing Gaza. On the other hand, he also needs to engage with Trump. Trump seeks recognition for ending conflict and extending Abraham Accords. This may include Saudi Arabia. This was suggested by Makovsky to VOA.

Agreement was reached in 2020. It was brokered under the first Trump administration. This agreement normalized relations between Israel and United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Later it extended to Morocco as well.

"Trump is not into constructing additional settlements. Nor he is into remaining in Gaza. Trump harbors Nobel aspirations. He seeks it for an advancement with Saudi Arabia. And I do not think these things will go together," opined Makovsky.

Analysts suggest that Trump is influencing calculations of opponents in Middle East. This is even prior to his term in office. His choice for national security adviser, Representative Mike Waltz, gave the then president-elect credit. The credit was for a ceasefire last month. This ceasefire was between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. U.S. and France brokered it.

"President Trump has everyone coming to table. His resounding victory conveys a clear message to the world. It is that a chaos is not to be tolerated," Waltz posted on social media.

US 'hopeful' for a deal. This was mentioned by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. He expressed on Wednesday that he is "hopeful" an agreement can be reached.

"Gaza must be turned into something different. That guarantees that Hamas is not in charge in any way. Also Israel does not have to be. There must be something coherent. This can allow governance, security, reconstruction of Gaza," he said.

This aim has not been reached. Washington has renewed its diplomatic effort. This is with Turkey, Egypt and Qatar.

"I do not perceive a scenario. President Biden will truly shift the needle here," Alkhatib said. 

He also stated that Hamas could be motivated to secure a deal. Biden is still in office. It will not be after Jan. 20. That is when U.S. will push for a much tougher deal. They know any assurances given by Biden administration will not be kept by Trump's administration.

However officials from Biden and Trump administrations announced they would work together. Their aim? To tackle global issues. They want to secure the transition period. Adversaries see these moments as opportunities. These statements come from national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

"Therefore, the focus is on us. Both Biden team leaving and the incoming Trump administration. We need to team up tighter than ever. We need to spend extra time in each other's company. A clear, unified message is essential for both allies and enemies in the Middle East", Sullivan stated.

The consistent message from these two leaders is clear. They want the war to stop. Yet thus far the warring factions do not seem to be listening.